Forget the Models - Look out the window

The rain is just now reaching the Birmingham metro area. The rain should be just about gone around noon. Which looks good for the tailgating party and the football game today at Legion field. The top regional view is at 6:26 am and the bottom is 6:14 am.



This is the infrared image at 5:45 am this morning. As you can see the clouds are already moving out of Memphis, so this afternoon the sky will be clearing.

18z Models for 3A Championship game

Leeds v. Cordova 3A championship football game tomorrow at Legion Field continues to look wetter with every model run. The 18z (12 noon today) run looks wetter than the 12z (6 am) run. Not only are the model runs wetter but they are also slower in the passage of the rain. If I was going to the game tomorrow, which I wish I was, I would have rain gear not only for the tailgate party but for the entire game. Remember, no umbrellas allowed inside the stadium.

This is the WRF simulated radar for 3:00 pm tomorrow - Kickoff


This is the WRF simulated radar for 6:00 pm - Final Whistle - sure looks wet!

Alabama 3A Football Championship looks wetter

The 12z run of the GFS model is in...it is looking wetter and wetter.
Here is a quick look at 12 noon tomorrow. TAKE THE RAIN GEAR

Leeds v. Cordova Class 3A Championship Weather

NAM Model Simulated Radar NOON Thursday



It could be wet for kickoff
The models continue to slow down the passage of the rain for Thursday. I still think kickoff temps will be 50-52 and by the finale whistle they will be in the mid 40's. The wind during the game will be out of the NE shifting to the N as the game progresses at 5-10 mph with minimal gusts of 15 mph. The sky will remain overcast for the entire game. The BIG question is the RAIN!!!

Rain Forecast
As the models continue to slow down the passage, I do believe that at kickoff there could be some light rain. But by halftime the rain should be gone. The possibility exists that the rain will be gone by kickoff. Even if it does rain during the game it will not be a hard rain, everything will be light.

NAM model NOON Thursday



GFS Model NOON Thursday


NAM Model Simulated Radar at 6:00 pm - Final Whistle


Closing thoughts

Rain gear looks to be a must for the tailgating party which begins at noon. Hopefully most if not all the rain will be gone by kickoff.

Final score prediction Leeds 24 Cordova 17

Class 3A Weather Forecast

Leeds will be taking on Cordova Thursday at Legion Field. Game time is 3:00 pm. Tailgating begins around noon.

The weather will be overcast, temp at kickoff will be 52 and falling to 45 by the final whistle. Winds will be out of the NE changing to NW at 10-12 mph. The rain that morning will be gone by kickoff. Make sure you take a coat and it wouldn't hurt to have rain gear for the tailgating party. The models over the last few days seem to be slowing down the passage of the front just a tad. Below are a few graphics for game day.

The graphic below is for 6:00am Thursday. The dying cold front is passing the Birmingham metro area.


This image is for noon - about the time tailgating begins. The light rain turns to drizzle as the dying front moves through. The NAM model is a little slower but drier.


This is the picture for 6:00 pm - about the final whistle. The rain has moved out and the temperature is falling after sunset. Temp's for the drive home will be in the mid to low 40's.

Leeds v. Cordova Weather Forecast

Just took a quick look at the latest model runs. The NAM model is a little slower than the GFS moving the rain through the area, but it still looks like the main rain will be off to the SE by kickoff. May need to bump kickoff temp up a little - something like upper 40's. The 18z model set will be in later today and will post graphics with updated thoughts.

Leeds v. Cordova Weather Forecast

Leeds will be taking on Cordova in the class 3A final Thursday Dec 4th at 3:00 pm.





I will be doing a weather forecast everyday until game day. Unfortunately I will be traveling Thursday so no forecast on game day and no game for me!!!


Rain should be moving out by game time. There will be a dying cold front moving through the area late Wed night into Thur morning. Some storms are possible in the overnight timeframe. By game time the rain should be off to the east. The wind will be 5-8 mph out of the NW. The temp at kickoff will be 45 F, slowly dropping to 40 F by the final whistle. The sky will be overcast for the entire game.



GFS model forecast for 6:00 am - Game Day. The front is moving through central Alabama.


By noon on game day the dying front has moved through. Light drizzle may be possible for kickoff, but it should be a dry game.

Alabama stomps Auburn 36-0

Tuscaloosa Skycam

This image is from Tuscaloosa at about 1:00pm today. The Tuscaloosa regional airport is reporting light drizzle, cloud base of 300 feet and visibility is 1 3/4 mile. Current temp is 59.

Kickoff is in 1 hour...

Gametime Radar update

Looks like the rain continues to move AWAY from Tuscaloosa!!!

Game time is 3 hours away...waiting...

Tuscaloosa Remains Dry

As the latest radar images shows, the main area of rain is staying south of Tuscaloosa. Could it be that the stadium remains dry for the game?

Radar image is valid at 9:40 am Saturday.

Game time is in 4 1/2 hours...

Iron Bowl Forecast

If anything the latest model runs have come in a little drier. Still looks like the commute will be rainy, but by game time the rain should be moving off to the east. My best guess is that at kickoff there will be light showers and as the game progresses the rain will diminish. Notice by 6:00pm most of the rain is gone.

The temperature should remain stable in the mid to upper 50's for the game. So a light coat and rain gear would be nice to have.

1" Snow for Sunday and Flurries thru Monday ?????

The 12z GFS model is coming in! Its showing a 1" snow possible for B"ham for late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The picture below is valid at 6:00 am Sunday morning. It is predicting .10" which translate into 1.0" of snow.

Is this model correct? - probably not! but fun to look at and ponder.


The next picture shows flurries continuing through the day Sunday.


Will This Happen?
This model solution is only 4 days out so you have to give it at least some credibility. However, the earlier run, the 06z, was painting a nice day. With all that being said the even earlier model runs were hinting at rain for Sunday. The two big questions...(1)Will we see some ANY precipitation during this time frame? Can't wait until the 18z runs comes in tonight to see it's solution. (2) Will it be cold enough for it to stick if it does snow?

WAITING...

Gravity Wave

These are pictures of a gravity wave moving through Tuscaloosa county around 2:00pm today.

Click on images for a larger view.

Bham Fire

Engine 20 Rescue 20 - 2:53 821 5th street SW - unresponsive 80 yr old
------- Rescue 20 transported to Princeton

Video credit: Dave911

Alabama v. Auburn weather

Models continue moving west

I'm beginning to rethink my earlier post about Hurricane Ike staying in the East Gulf. It seems that the models continue to move Ike more west. The trough is definitely coming. But the whrf and gfdl models have it slower than the GFS, thereby allowing Ike to shoot the gap and end up in the east central gulf from Panama City, Fort Walton area
to the big bend.

Admittedly, hurricanes have trouble moving west in the gulf of Mexico during September because the mid latitude westerlies are beginning their dip towards the south, thereby pulling storms to the northest; but it may be early enough in September that Ike will move more westerly.



Above is the 12z GFDL model run. Looking at model verification the GFDL seems to have a better handle on Ike than all the other models.

All eyes will be watching...

3:57pm UPDATE --- Ike now a cat 4 with 135mph winds

Where are you going..Hurricane Ike

It still looks like Ike is undergoing some shear to his north and northwest. That shear is forecast to start weakening in the next few hours and an upper anticyclone is also forecast to setup over Ike in the next day or so allowing the engine to breath, therefore Ike should strengthen. The main issue that will affect Ike's strength is interaction with land, which at this point really looks like Cuba could get a major hit from a cat 3 hurricane along the northern shore.



If this consensus is correct, Ike will be in the east central gulf in 5 days. At 5 days it seems to have its eyes set on New Orleans. However, I think a trough will be digging in the Midwest and pickup Ike and move him back to the northeast into the big bend of Florida. This is based on the 06z GFS model run. Shown below.

This image shows the 500mb (about 18,000 ft) pattern on Sat valid 00z which is late Friday evening central time.

This whole scenario is all based on timing...Will Ike move as slow or as fast as predicted? Will the trough get as far south as predicted? Will the trough be on time? Will the high pressure build in as forecast keeping Ike pushed to the Southwest? I do believe this scenario to be correct at this point, because the GFS model may not be the best at forecasting hurricanes, but it is very good with the overall synoptic weather pattern. Being this forecast is out 162 hours and models do shift from run to run, we all need to watch with a watchful eye. At this point it really looks like Ike will stay to the east of Mobile, Pensacola, and Destin.

Good Eats

OK, OK I said I would share good healthy eateries while traveling, and grilling hamburgers on the grill is not really healthy good eats, BUT it is good eats...

Had a good time last night getting ready for the football game between Vandy and South Carolina. After dinner I was channel surfing between the RNC convetion speeches and the football game. I ending up falling asleep (well I had the full stomach hamburger hangover) before the game was over and just found out the Vandy spanked SC...Did not see that happening.

Back to grilling...I love this little grill, just put in a little charcoal and go. I guess its hearkening back to simpler times. Times of being a kid and having no worries other than what to put on the hamburger. Its about lighting the charcoal sitting back and enjoying good company and letting the time slowly pass by. It is just not the same with a gas grill, which I put in the trash about a year or two ago and reverted back to a little cheap grill. Although I have to admit...I do stop and look at the nice outdoor kitchens while at Lowes or Home Depot. My wife and I even discussed it a little last night.

Update on Ike a little later...

Hurricane Information

Very good information on Hurricanes...if your a weather geek. excerpt from Jeff Masters weather underground blog.

"Why hurricanes recurve
The prevailing winds over the U.S. are from west to east, but in the tropics, they blow east to west. This pattern arises because we live on the surface of a spinning sphere that is heated unequally at the poles and equator. When a hurricane forms in the tropics, it moves east to west with the prevailing winds. However, if the storm gets far enough north, it will suddenly encounter a flow of air moving the opposite direction. This will force the hurricane to move northwards and then eastwards, as the storm gets caught up in the west to east flow of air. The boundary between these two air flow regimes fluctuates, depending upon the position of the jet stream. When a low pressure system moves across the U.S., the jet stream dips to the south, bringing the prevailing west to east winds over the U.S. closer to the tropics. Thus, hurricanes are more prone to recurve to the north when there is an approaching low pressure system passing to their north.

When hurricanes collide
Many readers have asked if Hanna and Ike could collide and make a super hurricane. Well, hurricanes cannot collide to make a bigger hurricane. When hurricanes get within about 900 miles of each, they begin to interact. There are three possible outcomes:

1) The larger storm will destroy the smaller one. The larger storm's upper-level outflow will bring hostile wind shear over the smaller storm, and the larger storm may steal the smaller storm's moisture. This occurred in 2005, when Hurricane Wilma destroyed Tropical Storm Alpha over Hispaniola.

2) Both hurricanes will compete for the same energy, resulting in weakening of both storms.

3) The storms will rotate around a common center of rotation (the Fujiwhara Effect), before going on their separate ways. Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Iris took part in a brief Fujiwhara interaction in 1995. Iris then began interacting with a third storm, Tropical Storm Karen, which orbited and later merged with the more intense Iris. In
cases, the two storms will merge, such as occurred in 1997 in the Pacific with Typhoon
Yule and TD 16W.

Sometimes, a recurving hurricane will leave behind an enhanced trough of low pressure that will act to help recurve the storm behind it along the same path. This is possible this week with Ike and Hanna."



Jeff Masters

Alabama Radar Update 2:30pm

A few storms are lined up along the Alabama Mississippi border. It looks like they know where the state line is...interesting.

Click upper picture for animated Gif image

Yikes Ike

Ike exploded yesterday from a tropical storm into a dangerous hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph. It seems to be encountering more shear on the north and northwest edges as seen on the water vapor images. You can see the outflow in those areas being blow away. According to the forecasters Ike will encounter increased shear over the next 24-48 hours, thereby hindering the expansion of the storm and may even weaken him over the short term.



Shear Forecast

If the the forecast holds together Ike will maintain his current strength or slightly weaken, but by 36 hours will be under less than 15kts of shear and very favorable conditions. The only caveat is with Hanna stalled over the last couple of days: she may have stirred up the cooler waters under her and laid a trap for Ike...only time will tell.


This is a picture of the 500mb (about 18,000 feet)trough coming through the Midwest that should pick up Ike and pull him to the north in a few days.

Shear on Tropical Storms

The photo above shows the shear affecting the 3 tropical systems.
1. TS Hanna - 25-30kts - not very favorable for development
2. TS Ike - 10kts - favorable for development
3. TS Josephine - 15kts - favorable for development