Models continue moving west

I'm beginning to rethink my earlier post about Hurricane Ike staying in the East Gulf. It seems that the models continue to move Ike more west. The trough is definitely coming. But the whrf and gfdl models have it slower than the GFS, thereby allowing Ike to shoot the gap and end up in the east central gulf from Panama City, Fort Walton area
to the big bend.

Admittedly, hurricanes have trouble moving west in the gulf of Mexico during September because the mid latitude westerlies are beginning their dip towards the south, thereby pulling storms to the northest; but it may be early enough in September that Ike will move more westerly.



Above is the 12z GFDL model run. Looking at model verification the GFDL seems to have a better handle on Ike than all the other models.

All eyes will be watching...

3:57pm UPDATE --- Ike now a cat 4 with 135mph winds

Where are you going..Hurricane Ike

It still looks like Ike is undergoing some shear to his north and northwest. That shear is forecast to start weakening in the next few hours and an upper anticyclone is also forecast to setup over Ike in the next day or so allowing the engine to breath, therefore Ike should strengthen. The main issue that will affect Ike's strength is interaction with land, which at this point really looks like Cuba could get a major hit from a cat 3 hurricane along the northern shore.



If this consensus is correct, Ike will be in the east central gulf in 5 days. At 5 days it seems to have its eyes set on New Orleans. However, I think a trough will be digging in the Midwest and pickup Ike and move him back to the northeast into the big bend of Florida. This is based on the 06z GFS model run. Shown below.

This image shows the 500mb (about 18,000 ft) pattern on Sat valid 00z which is late Friday evening central time.

This whole scenario is all based on timing...Will Ike move as slow or as fast as predicted? Will the trough get as far south as predicted? Will the trough be on time? Will the high pressure build in as forecast keeping Ike pushed to the Southwest? I do believe this scenario to be correct at this point, because the GFS model may not be the best at forecasting hurricanes, but it is very good with the overall synoptic weather pattern. Being this forecast is out 162 hours and models do shift from run to run, we all need to watch with a watchful eye. At this point it really looks like Ike will stay to the east of Mobile, Pensacola, and Destin.

Good Eats

OK, OK I said I would share good healthy eateries while traveling, and grilling hamburgers on the grill is not really healthy good eats, BUT it is good eats...

Had a good time last night getting ready for the football game between Vandy and South Carolina. After dinner I was channel surfing between the RNC convetion speeches and the football game. I ending up falling asleep (well I had the full stomach hamburger hangover) before the game was over and just found out the Vandy spanked SC...Did not see that happening.

Back to grilling...I love this little grill, just put in a little charcoal and go. I guess its hearkening back to simpler times. Times of being a kid and having no worries other than what to put on the hamburger. Its about lighting the charcoal sitting back and enjoying good company and letting the time slowly pass by. It is just not the same with a gas grill, which I put in the trash about a year or two ago and reverted back to a little cheap grill. Although I have to admit...I do stop and look at the nice outdoor kitchens while at Lowes or Home Depot. My wife and I even discussed it a little last night.

Update on Ike a little later...

Hurricane Information

Very good information on Hurricanes...if your a weather geek. excerpt from Jeff Masters weather underground blog.

"Why hurricanes recurve
The prevailing winds over the U.S. are from west to east, but in the tropics, they blow east to west. This pattern arises because we live on the surface of a spinning sphere that is heated unequally at the poles and equator. When a hurricane forms in the tropics, it moves east to west with the prevailing winds. However, if the storm gets far enough north, it will suddenly encounter a flow of air moving the opposite direction. This will force the hurricane to move northwards and then eastwards, as the storm gets caught up in the west to east flow of air. The boundary between these two air flow regimes fluctuates, depending upon the position of the jet stream. When a low pressure system moves across the U.S., the jet stream dips to the south, bringing the prevailing west to east winds over the U.S. closer to the tropics. Thus, hurricanes are more prone to recurve to the north when there is an approaching low pressure system passing to their north.

When hurricanes collide
Many readers have asked if Hanna and Ike could collide and make a super hurricane. Well, hurricanes cannot collide to make a bigger hurricane. When hurricanes get within about 900 miles of each, they begin to interact. There are three possible outcomes:

1) The larger storm will destroy the smaller one. The larger storm's upper-level outflow will bring hostile wind shear over the smaller storm, and the larger storm may steal the smaller storm's moisture. This occurred in 2005, when Hurricane Wilma destroyed Tropical Storm Alpha over Hispaniola.

2) Both hurricanes will compete for the same energy, resulting in weakening of both storms.

3) The storms will rotate around a common center of rotation (the Fujiwhara Effect), before going on their separate ways. Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Iris took part in a brief Fujiwhara interaction in 1995. Iris then began interacting with a third storm, Tropical Storm Karen, which orbited and later merged with the more intense Iris. In
cases, the two storms will merge, such as occurred in 1997 in the Pacific with Typhoon
Yule and TD 16W.

Sometimes, a recurving hurricane will leave behind an enhanced trough of low pressure that will act to help recurve the storm behind it along the same path. This is possible this week with Ike and Hanna."



Jeff Masters

Alabama Radar Update 2:30pm

A few storms are lined up along the Alabama Mississippi border. It looks like they know where the state line is...interesting.

Click upper picture for animated Gif image

Yikes Ike

Ike exploded yesterday from a tropical storm into a dangerous hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph. It seems to be encountering more shear on the north and northwest edges as seen on the water vapor images. You can see the outflow in those areas being blow away. According to the forecasters Ike will encounter increased shear over the next 24-48 hours, thereby hindering the expansion of the storm and may even weaken him over the short term.



Shear Forecast

If the the forecast holds together Ike will maintain his current strength or slightly weaken, but by 36 hours will be under less than 15kts of shear and very favorable conditions. The only caveat is with Hanna stalled over the last couple of days: she may have stirred up the cooler waters under her and laid a trap for Ike...only time will tell.


This is a picture of the 500mb (about 18,000 feet)trough coming through the Midwest that should pick up Ike and pull him to the north in a few days.

Shear on Tropical Storms

The photo above shows the shear affecting the 3 tropical systems.
1. TS Hanna - 25-30kts - not very favorable for development
2. TS Ike - 10kts - favorable for development
3. TS Josephine - 15kts - favorable for development