Models continue moving west

I'm beginning to rethink my earlier post about Hurricane Ike staying in the East Gulf. It seems that the models continue to move Ike more west. The trough is definitely coming. But the whrf and gfdl models have it slower than the GFS, thereby allowing Ike to shoot the gap and end up in the east central gulf from Panama City, Fort Walton area
to the big bend.

Admittedly, hurricanes have trouble moving west in the gulf of Mexico during September because the mid latitude westerlies are beginning their dip towards the south, thereby pulling storms to the northest; but it may be early enough in September that Ike will move more westerly.



Above is the 12z GFDL model run. Looking at model verification the GFDL seems to have a better handle on Ike than all the other models.

All eyes will be watching...

3:57pm UPDATE --- Ike now a cat 4 with 135mph winds