Where are you going..Hurricane Ike

It still looks like Ike is undergoing some shear to his north and northwest. That shear is forecast to start weakening in the next few hours and an upper anticyclone is also forecast to setup over Ike in the next day or so allowing the engine to breath, therefore Ike should strengthen. The main issue that will affect Ike's strength is interaction with land, which at this point really looks like Cuba could get a major hit from a cat 3 hurricane along the northern shore.



If this consensus is correct, Ike will be in the east central gulf in 5 days. At 5 days it seems to have its eyes set on New Orleans. However, I think a trough will be digging in the Midwest and pickup Ike and move him back to the northeast into the big bend of Florida. This is based on the 06z GFS model run. Shown below.

This image shows the 500mb (about 18,000 ft) pattern on Sat valid 00z which is late Friday evening central time.

This whole scenario is all based on timing...Will Ike move as slow or as fast as predicted? Will the trough get as far south as predicted? Will the trough be on time? Will the high pressure build in as forecast keeping Ike pushed to the Southwest? I do believe this scenario to be correct at this point, because the GFS model may not be the best at forecasting hurricanes, but it is very good with the overall synoptic weather pattern. Being this forecast is out 162 hours and models do shift from run to run, we all need to watch with a watchful eye. At this point it really looks like Ike will stay to the east of Mobile, Pensacola, and Destin.